The Federal Reserve (Fed) completed its U-turn in policy last week. Policymakers announced a 25-basis point (0.25%) rate cut July 31, its first in 10 years [Figure 1].
Stocks endured significant volatility last week but showed some resilience Wednesday, August 7, when the S&P 500 Index dropped as much as 2% intraday before rallying back late to close slightly positive. Stocks ended the week near flat, putting the S&P 500 about 3% away from its record high.
Green shoots appeared in U.S. economic data as the economy entered the second quarter. Leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 3.1% year over year in March, breaking a five-month slide in annual growth.
The Portfolio Compass provides a snapshot of LPL Financial Research’s views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes. This monthly publication illustrates our current views and will change as needed over a 3- to 12-month time horizon. Read recent issue...
AFTER NEARLY 10 YEARS of witnessing the U.S. economy and stock market recover—and thrive—investors are starting to wonder if we’ve seen all this expansion and bull market have to offer. Despite the market weakness we saw at the end of 2018, at LPL Research we expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2019 and support gains for stocks.
WHEN WE RELEASED our Outlook 2019 - FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets in December 2018, financial markets were in disarray. Global investors were scared by uncertain monetary policy, fiscal and legislative discord, slowing economic growth, and slackening corporate profits. Despite the increased volatility, we continued to believe that market and economic fundamentals remained generally sound.
Over the past eight years extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy has served as the primary catalyst for spurring continued economic growth in the U.S. and around the globe.
Stock markets, bond markets, the economy, policy — some years they push and pull on each other lightly as markets follow their own path; in others, one influence, such as monetary policy, dominates. But sometimes, often following a period of change, understanding the pushes and pulls and how they interact becomes a key to reassessing market dynamics for the next year and beyond.