The U.S. government is in Day 24 of a partial government shutdown, which is now the longest in U.S. history. The closure reached an inflection point on Friday, when government workers’ first payday during this closure passed without a paycheck.
Fourth quarter earnings reporting begins this week. Over the next five days (January 14–18), 35 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report quarterly results, highlighted by several big banks. Here we preview fourth quarter earnings, discuss several key drivers, and share some thoughts on the outlook for 2019. We expect a mid-to-high-teens increase in earnings for the quarter, driven primarily by the solid economic backdrop.
Economic trends generally improved in December, even amid some of the most significant financial market volatility of the bull market. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of ten leading indicators, increased 0.2% in November and 5.2% year over year. While LEI growth slowed for a second month, positive momentum signaled low odds of recession in the coming year.
The Portfolio Compass provides a snapshot of LPL Financial Research’s views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes. This monthly publication illustrates our current views and will change as needed over a 3- to 12-month time horizon. Read recent issue...
AFTER NEARLY 10 YEARS of witnessing the U.S. economy and stock market recover—and thrive—investors are starting to wonder if we’ve seen all this expansion and bull market have to offer. Despite the market weakness we saw at the end of 2018, at LPL Research we expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2019 and support gains for stocks.
Over the past eight years extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy has served as the primary catalyst for spurring continued economic growth in the U.S. and around the globe.
Stock markets, bond markets, the economy, policy — some years they push and pull on each other lightly as markets follow their own path; in others, one influence, such as monetary policy, dominates. But sometimes, often following a period of change, understanding the pushes and pulls and how they interact becomes a key to reassessing market dynamics for the next year and beyond.